US election 2020: What the US election will mean for the UK
By James Landale
Diplomatic correspondent
26.10.2020
If you want to see one of the great monuments
to what is called "the special relationship" between Britain and the
United States, take a stroll to Grosvenor Square, a leafy haven in the heart of
London.
There you
will find a grand statue of Franklin Delano Roosevelt, the great wartime
American president, set high on a stone pedestal, dominating the square. Below
it there is a surprise, an inscription revealing that the statue, unveiled in
1948, was paid for by "small sums from people in every walk of life throughout the UK".
Think of
it: at a time of grim post-war austerity and food rationing, 160,000 Britons
were so admiring of America they were willing to pay five shillings each -
about 8 pounds in today's money - to erect a statue in memory of its former president.
This
memorial marks perhaps the zenith of
US-UK relations. It is doubtful today many Britons would fork out
hard-earned cash to raise a likeness of Donald Trump.
A survey last month by the Pew Research Center found
only 19% of Britons have confidence in
Mr Trump to do the right thing in world affairs. Transatlantic relations over the past four years have been ragged.
President
Trump publicly criticised Theresa
May's Brexit negotiations; on
Twitter he accused British intelligence
of spying on him; down the phone he shouted at Boris Johnson about the UK's
approach to the Chinese tech giant,
Huawei.
There have
been "ups and downs at a political
level", the ever-diplomatic Lord Sedwill, Britain's recent national security adviser, told
the BBC. "President Trump is a very unusual occupant of that office."
Of course, the official relationship between Britain and the US endures; the military, diplomatic and intelligence
links that run deep into the fabric of both nations.
But the occupant of the White House shapes
that relationship, and that is why the election on November 3 matters.
The big
question about a second Trump term
is whether he would double down, unconstrained by electoral concerns, or moderate his behaviour as he looked to his legacy.
Some reckon there might just be more of the
same. For the UK, that would mean reasonably warm personal relations at the top
between the president and a prime minister he once called "Britain Trump". There would be more positive noises
about Brexit and a future trade deal.
But there would likely also be more disputes over policy such as relations with
China or Iran.
In terms of substance, the
big unknown is whether Trump mark 2 would withdraw the US even further from
the defence alliance Nato. In recent interviews, John Bolton, Trump's
former National Security Adviser, has said there was real risk of this.
Others say
it would be resisted by the US political
establishment. But if the US did step back from Nato, Britain and the rest
of Europe would have to spend more on their own defence and that could mean substantial tax rises.
On Iran, a
second Trump administration would push harder for the collapse of the deal Tehran agreed to curb its nuclear ambitions. Britain would come under more
pressure to split from European allies
or risk tougher US sanctions that
apply indirectly to British businesses and banks. The transatlantic divide on
this and other issues would likely grow if Mr Trump gets four more years.
If Joe
Biden were to win, the US would be less
hostile towards the international organisations that Britain values so
much, such as the United Nations. It would try to repair global partnerships. He's promising a "summit of the
democracies". Transatlantic relations would be easier, less unpredictable,
with fewer unexpected tweets.
Relations
between the US and the UK over some policy issues would improve. Take climate change. Next year Britain is hosting a big UN summit -
known as COP26 - where it is hoped the world will agree new carbon reduction targets. President Trump, who
pulled the US out of the previous Paris climate accord, is unlikely to help get
a deal, whereas Mr Biden has promised to re-join Paris and push for even more
ambitious targets.
What the US election will mean for climate
change
Both Mr
Biden and Mr Johnson share a tough
approach towards Russia. They are closer on China, agreeing on the need to
challenge behaviour but also allow for engagement on global issues. Divisions
over Iran may become less stark as
Mr Biden has promised to re-engage with the nuclear deal.
That is not
to say a Biden presidency would not pose difficulties for the UK.
He is not a
natural fan of the prime minister, describing him last December as "a
physical and emotional clone" of President Trump. He strongly opposed
Brexit. And as someone with a strong sense of his Irish heritage, Mr Biden has expressed concern about the potential impact
Britain's departure from the European Union could have on Ireland's economy and Northern Ireland's security.
Many
analysts believe a Biden presidency would shift
its focus towards Germany and France, seeing them and the EU as America's primary
transatlantic partners.
Sir Peter
Westmacott, former UK ambassador in
Washington, said: "Biden will lean towards Paris and Berlin not because he
has anything intrinsic against the UK, but because we will count for less in
Washington because of Brexit. Our importance to the US has always been linked
to the difference we can make to US interests in Europe, and vice versa."
Regardless of who wins on November 3, many observers
believe some trends will continue: the gradual US retreat from global
leadership and military intervention as
the country rediscovers its isolationistic instincts. Mr Biden might be more
internationalist in outlook than Mr Trump, but he too is promising to end US
involvement in "forever wars", focus
his foreign policy on improving the lives of America's middle classes, and
protect US jobs from the tide of globalization.
According
to Sophia Gaston, director of the British Foreign Policy Group, that means
Britain will come under pressure to fill that vacuum and defend the multilateral
organisations that have served the West so well.
"Even
if Biden wins," she says, "Britain is going to have to take a bigger
role in those international institutions and a bigger role in leadership on
issues like climate change, democracy
and human rights because the US president is going to be more concerned by
a fractious domestic landscape."
Task 1. Read and translate the article.
Task 2. Write out the new words given in bold paying
attention to the pronunciation.
Task 3. Find English equivalents of the
following words and phrases.
1) наследие
2) несмотря на
3) права человека
4) волна глобализации
5) военное вмешательство
6) разделять жесткий подход
7) санкции
8) быть менее враждебным по отношению к
9) переключить внимание на
10) становиться менее суровыми
Task 4. Match the synonyms.
1) walk of
life a) envoy
2) security
b) integration
3) ambassador c) safety
4) summit d) class
5)
Globalization e) meeting
Task 5. Make up 5 questions to discuss the
article with your group mates.
Task 6. Read the article a second time and be
ready to discuss in the classroom:
-
what
was the author’s intention to tell the general public about
-
what
is the main idea/ problem raised.
Task 7. Write a rendering of the article. (for the second lesson)
